Price of Christmas dinner could come down in early sign inflation era is ending

Nigel Gahan, sales director at Gahan Meats, said supplies of turkey are high heading into the peak buying season.

The family-owned business provides meats to customers and catering companies across the greater Dublin area.

He anticipates that the price of turkey will even drop slightly this Christmas compared with last year.

A larger supply of turkeys is expected to be available this year.

Last year, price pressures were unusually high after some farmers reported challenges in the run-up to the festive season, including an outbreak of avian flu as well as higher feed and energy prices.

Ham prices are expected to remain largely unchanged, Mr Gahan said.

Shoppers are planning their Christmas dinner earlier this year, according to Pat Whelan, director of James Whelan Butchers.

“It’s starting earlier every year, people are getting more organised with online ordering options since Covid,” he said.

James Whelan Butchers has 12 locations across Ireland, including in some Avoca and Dunnes Stores. Mr Whelan said consumers planning ahead won’t face any surprise price hikes this year when organising their Christmas dinner.

“The price of fuel has normalised, the price of electricity has normalised so the producers are coming back to a more level position so I don’t see any material change in price at all,” he said.

Data from research group Kantar showed that turkey sales in the 12 weeks to October 29 this year rose 1.8pc, while the value of these sales declined 2.6pc in the same period.

Meanwhile, fresh bacon joint sales were down 4.2pc, while the value was down 3.9pc in the same period.

Grocery price inflation is beginning to slow, according to Kantar. Grocery price inflation was 9.8pc in the 12 weeks to October 29 – the lowest level since September 2022.

Mr Gahan has also noticed a change in consumer sentiment in recent years.

“There are less people ordering turkey and ham,” he said. Gahan Meats has noticed a rise in the amount of pork purchases, as well as duck and chicken.

“Turkey and ham are not the staple of every Christmas dinner. We are a multicultural country.”

As well as this, Mr Gahan believes smaller families may opt for a different type of meat to reduce food waste. “A 6/7kg turkey is great value but, on the flipside, it might be too much for one family.”

Mr Whelan said: “As our communities grow and become more diverse, there’s an interest in alternatives at Christmas.”

He also points to the number of households investing in air fryers recently. “It made the oven a little dormant during the year, but the oven is the only piece of equipment to cook the turkey properly.”

Other traditional favourites remain on the agenda. Kantar revealed that the volume of seasonal biscuit sales rose 9.5pc in the 12 weeks to October 23.

SuperValu owner Musgrave has also recorded a 25pc jump in the sales of yule logs so far this year. The charcuterie board, a pandemic favourite, has remained popular ahead of the festive season.

Musgrave Group said that customers are treating themselves to “affordable in-home occasions against a backdrop of challenging cost-of-living issues”.

Meanwhile, the move to better-value own-brand options was also evident in Christmas shopping trips last year as consumers sought the best deals.

SuperValu’s own-brand cranberry sauce sold double the volume of any branded variety, with the same demand expected in 2023.